The Whales Are Betting the Underdog
Every disclosed million-dollar Super Bowl LX wager has landed on the same side: the New England Patriots. While sportsbooks expect recreational bettors to flood in on the favored Seattle Seahawks, the biggest individual bets are going against the grain. For contrarian bettors, the early money trail tells a familiar story.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale wagered $2 million on the AFC to win the Super Bowl at +200 odds with Caesars Sportsbook. That bet, placed before the conference championship games, now functions as a Patriots moneyline ticket. If New England wins, Mack pockets $4 million. A day earlier, an anonymous bettor at Circa Sports in Las Vegas dropped $1.1 million on the Patriots moneyline at +188 odds, a wager that would return roughly $2.1 million on a New England victory.
Here’s the contrast that matters: according to ESPN, last year’s Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs drew zero disclosed million-dollar bets from U.S. sportsbooks. This year, there have been at least two reported seven-figure wagers, and both are on the underdog.
Public Money Expected on Seattle
Sportsbooks are bracing for the opposite flow from casual bettors. “I believe the public will be backing Seattle here,” Borgata sportsbook director Tom Gable told VegasInsider. “So from a game standpoint, we will probably end up needing New England.”
SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon echoed that expectation: “I think the public will be on the favorite Seahawks, on the spread and on moneyline parlays.”
The line movement tells part of the story. Seattle opened as a 3.5-point favorite and quickly jumped to -4.5, with some books briefly hitting -5. Early action came almost entirely on the Seahawks. “We opened Seahawks -4 and a total of 46.5, and we’ve been getting one-way action on Seattle,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jeff Sherman said Sunday night.
Yet the line hasn’t continued climbing. It has stabilized at Seahawks -4.5. When heavy public money meets steady odds, sharp money on the other side is often the counterweight.
Why Big Bettors Like the Dog
Mattress Mack explained his reasoning to ESPN: “I really like their quarterback [Drake Maye], coach [Mike Vrabel] and offensive coordinator [Josh McDaniels], plus Robert Kraft is always there.”
But there’s a structural element too. Getting plus odds on the underdog helps with Mack’s furniture promotion, which promises refunds to customers if the Patriots win. The math works better when you’re getting 2-to-1 instead of laying juice.
For other high-rollers, the calculus may be simpler. Super Bowl underdogs have covered five consecutive games. They’ve won three straight outright. Since 2001, underdogs are 17-7 ATS in the Super Bowl. The historical lean is clear.
Sharp vs. Square in the Super Bowl
The typical Super Bowl betting pattern plays out over two weeks. Sharps move fast, placing large wagers immediately after the line opens to capture value before the market adjusts. Recreational bettors trickle in later, often backing the favorite and the over.
Caesars Sportsbook estimates that approximately 5% of the Super Bowl’s total handle comes within the first 24 hours. “As expected, the initial action is driven primarily by sharp bettors, whose wagers help shape and refine the market,” Joey Feazel, Caesars’ head of football, told ESPN.
What we’re seeing now is that initial sharp action, and it’s overwhelmingly on New England. The public wave hasn’t arrived yet. When it does, it will likely push toward Seattle. The question is whether the early professional money was right, as it often is in the fade-the-public framework.
The Contrarian Signal
None of this guarantees a Patriots cover. Sharp bettors lose plenty of games. Mattress Mack himself lost approximately $9.5 million betting on the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.
But the pattern is worth noting. The largest disclosed bets are unanimous on the underdog. Sportsbooks expect to need the Patriots by kickoff. And the historical ATS data favors the team getting points.
For bettors who follow the underdog philosophy, the early money trail offers validation. The whales aren’t just nibbling on New England. They’re diving in headfirst.