The Tomlin Special Delivers Again Week 18 Sunday ended exactly how contrarian bettors dream: with a missed field goal, a home underdog winning outright, and Mike Tomlin adding another line to his legendary resume. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 to claim the AFC North title, covering as 3.5-point underdogs and extending one … Read more
Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each. The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily … Read more
The Week 18 Tank Bowl Paradox The Chiefs and Raiders meet Sunday in what might be the strangest game of the 2025 NFL season. Kansas City is favored by 6 points on the road against a team that needs to lose. That’s not hyperbole. The Raiders (2-14) clinch the #1 overall pick in the 2026 … Read more
Three Divisions on the Line Week 18 brings something rare: three games where the winner takes the division and the loser goes home. The NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. For contrarian bettors, the setup offers interesting angles that cut against public perception. The betting market has spoken … Read more
Home Favorite to Home Underdog Something unusual happened this week in the betting market. The San Francisco 49ers opened as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks. By Tuesday, that line had flipped. The 49ers are now 1.5-point underdogs in their own building. The game is Saturday night. Winner takes the NFC West title … Read more
The Buccaneers Are Still Favored Tampa Bay has failed to cover a spread in eight consecutive games. They started the season 6-2. They’re now 7-9. Their collapse has been one of the most thorough in recent NFL history. And on Saturday, when they host the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title, the Buccaneers are … Read more
Seven-Point Underdogs Win Outright The Atlanta Falcons entered Monday Night Football with nothing to play for. Eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago. A 6-9 record. Playing a Rams team that had already clinched a postseason berth and was jockeying for seeding. The betting public saw a mismatch. By game time, over 80% of spread bets … Read more
Five Underdogs, Five Outright Winners Week 17 underdogs didn’t just cover. They dominated. From Saturday through Sunday, five underdogs won outright, and the margins weren’t close. Here’s what happened: Texans +1.5 at Chargers: Won 20-16. Houston led 14-0 in the first quarter and never trailed. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdown passes in the opening frame … Read more
Saturday’s NFL doubleheader produced something contrarian bettors rarely see: both underdogs won outright. The Texans beat the Chargers 20-16 as +1.5 road dogs. The Ravens crushed the Packers 41-24 as +3 to +4.5 underdogs. Two games, two outright underdog victories, two covers by double digits when you factor in the spread. Combined with Christmas Day’s … Read more
Tampa Bay started the season 6-2. They were getting serious NFC contender buzz. Baker Mayfield looked like a late-career revelation. The offense was rolling. The four-time NFC South champions appeared ready for another division title run. That was two months ago. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 1-6. More striking: they’re 0-7 against the spread … Read more