An Unprecedented Wild Card Weekend Setup Wild Card Weekend kicks off today with something the NFL playoffs have never seen: four road favorites. The Rams, Packers, Bills, and Texans are all favored to win on the road. For the first time in league history, a No. 2 seed is an underdog to a No. 7 … Read more
Division Champion at Home, Getting Points Against a Skidding Rival The Chicago Bears enter Wild Card Weekend as NFC North champions, hosting their first playoff game since the infamous “Double Doink” loss in 2018. They finished 11-6, won their division for the first time in seven years, and secured the conference’s second seed. Their opponent? … Read more
The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams. The opening line? Panthers … Read more
The Numbers Don’t Lie Since 2017, playoff underdogs have covered the spread in approximately 61% of all postseason games. That’s not a typo. While the public floods sportsbooks with action on favorites every January, the dogs keep cashing tickets. The Wild Card round is where this trend shines brightest. Over the past eight postseasons, underdogs … Read more
The Tomlin Special Delivers Again Week 18 Sunday ended exactly how contrarian bettors dream: with a missed field goal, a home underdog winning outright, and Mike Tomlin adding another line to his legendary resume. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 to claim the AFC North title, covering as 3.5-point underdogs and extending one … Read more
Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each. The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily … Read more