sharp money

Public Money in Playoffs – Why Favorites Get Overbet

by
Infographic explaining public betting dynamics in NFL playoffs. 70-80% of tickets on favorites creates underdog value. Sportsbooks shade lines. Result is 61% underdog cover rate. Gold series header identifies Playoff Underdogs series.

The January Betting Surge Something changes in the betting market every January. Millions of casual bettors who ignored NFL spreads all season suddenly want action on the playoffs. They download apps, make deposits, and start placing bets. Most of them back favorites. This isn’t speculation. Sportsbooks track ticket counts and handle percentages. During the regular … Read more

The Chiefs Were Still Favored. That Was the Problem.

by
chiefs-dynasty-betting-infographic

The Chiefs dynasty betting lesson was written in Week 16. Kansas City entered the game against Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites despite being eliminated from the playoffs, missing Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, and having lost five of their last six games. The Titans won 26-9. It wasn’t close. How Reputation Inflated the Line … Read more