Six Games, Six Opportunities Wild Card weekend opens tomorrow with six games spread across three days. The public has already placed their bets. The lines have moved. And somewhere in this weekend’s slate, value exists for those willing to look past the obvious narratives. We’ve spent this week examining historical playoff underdog performance, why public … Read more
The Jaguars Are Home Underdogs Despite an 8-Game Winning Streak The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t lost since early November. They’ve won eight straight games. They’ve covered the spread in all eight of those games. They finished the regular season 12-4-1 against the spread, the best mark in franchise history. And they’re underdogs at home in the … Read more
The Rarest Playoff Spot Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are unicorns. The seeding structure ensures division winners host wild card teams, and those division winners are typically favored. You might see two or three home underdogs across an entire postseason. Some years, none at all. But when they appear, home playoff underdogs have been … Read more
The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams. The opening line? Panthers … Read more
The Numbers Don’t Lie Since 2017, playoff underdogs have covered the spread in approximately 61% of all postseason games. That’s not a typo. While the public floods sportsbooks with action on favorites every January, the dogs keep cashing tickets. The Wild Card round is where this trend shines brightest. Over the past eight postseasons, underdogs … Read more