The Franchise Barrier
The Houston Texans have made the divisional round six times in their 24-year history. They’ve lost all six. No other team in the NFL has gone 0-6 or worse in a single playoff round. The Texans are the only current franchise that has never appeared in a conference championship game.
On Sunday, they’ll try again. The Patriots are 3-point home favorites at Gillette Stadium. Houston arrives on a 10-game winning streak with the best defense in football. If ever there was a Texans team built to break through, this is it.
And they’re getting points.
What’s Different This Time
The Texans started 0-3 this season. Outsiders had already written them off. Then something clicked.
Houston hasn’t lost since Week 9. Their defense ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed and second in points allowed. Will Anderson Jr. and the pass rush generated four sacks and two defensive touchdowns against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round, turning a 16-6 game into a 30-6 statement.
Monday night’s win over the Steelers was also historic for a different reason. It was the franchise’s first road playoff victory ever. The Texans had been 0-6 all-time in away playoff games before knocking out Pittsburgh. They’ve already broken one curse. Now they’re chasing the bigger one.
The Divisional Round Demons
Houston’s divisional round history reads like a horror story. In January 2013, they lost to the Patriots 41-28. In January 2017, they lost to the Patriots 34-16 despite entering halftime trailing only 17-13. The 2020 collapse in Kansas City remains one of the most stunning defeats in playoff history, as the Texans blew a 24-0 lead before losing 51-31.
In January 2024, they fell to the Ravens 34-10 after entering halftime tied 10-10. Last January, it was the Chiefs again in a 23-14 loss where Kansas City controlled the game throughout.
The common thread? Houston has been on the road for every single one of these losses. The Texans have never hosted a divisional round game because they’ve never earned a first-round bye. They keep running into rested top seeds on enemy turf.
This year is no different. The Patriots had a week off during Wild Card Weekend while Houston ground through Pittsburgh on Monday night. It’s a short week, another road trip, another mountain to climb.
Why the Market May Be Undervaluing Houston
The Patriots are 2-0 all-time against Houston in the playoffs, winning by an average of 15.5 points. That history weighs on the line. New England is at home, where they’re 7-3 this season. Mike Vrabel’s defense just held the Chargers to three points.
But there are cracks in the narrative. The Patriots ranked 30th in strength of schedule this season, benefiting from the weakest slate in the league. Their only road win against a playoff team came against the Bills in Week 16. Drake Maye fumbled twice in the Wild Card round and threw an interception.
Meanwhile, Houston’s defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in eight straight games with the starters playing the full contest. C.J. Stroud had three turnovers against Pittsburgh, but the defense still dominated. When the Texans are at their best, the offense only needs to be competent.
The public betting percentages favor New England. The Patriots have the brand recognition, the home-field advantage, and the historical edge. That’s exactly the profile that creates contrarian value for Houston.
The Underdog Angle
Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 14-4 ATS in Round 2 since 2005. Road teams that won 11 or more regular season games are 26-13 ATS on Divisional weekend since 2002. The Texans fit both profiles.
Houston is getting 3 points despite having the league’s best defense by yards allowed and a 10-game winning streak. The spread implies New England is roughly a field goal better on a neutral field, which seems generous given the Texans’ recent dominance and the Patriots’ soft schedule.
The public perception of the Patriots still reflects the dynasty years. Vrabel’s first-year turnaround has been impressive, but this isn’t the New England that won six Super Bowls. Maye is a second-year quarterback in his first playoff run. The defense is strong but faces its toughest test of the season against Houston’s ball-control offense.
What to Watch
If the Texans win on Sunday, they’ll play for a spot in Super Bowl LX. They’ll have broken through the ceiling that has defined their franchise for two decades. The narrative will flip from “can’t win the big one” to “team of destiny.”
If they lose, it will be seven divisional round defeats in franchise history. The curse will grow. The questions about whether Houston can ever take the next step will intensify.
But the betting market doesn’t care about curses. It prices probability. And a team with the NFL’s best defense, a 10-game winning streak, and their first road playoff win in franchise history is getting points against a Patriots team that hasn’t faced a defense this good all season.
The Texans have been here before. Six times, in fact. They’ve lost every time. But this version of the team has something the others didn’t: a defense capable of winning games when the offense struggles. Sunday will reveal whether that’s finally enough to break through.