The Contrarian Strategist 
The Texans Are Getting Plus Money. Read That Again. Houston enters Saturday’s game at Los Angeles riding a seven-game winning streak, the longest active run in the NFL. The Texans have the league’s best defense in both total yards allowed (272.3 per game) and scoring (16.6 points per game). They’ve held opponents to 21 points … Read more
The NFL’s Christmas Day slate featured three divisional matchups and two underdog covers. The Vikings won outright as 7.5-point underdogs against the Lions, while the Chiefs covered as 13-point home dogs against the Broncos. For contrarian bettors, it was a profitable holiday. Vikings 23, Lions 10: The Upset of the Day Minnesota entered as +7.5 … Read more
The Lions Were Super Bowl Favorites. Now They Need a Christmas Miracle. Detroit entered the 2025 season at +1200 to win the Super Bowl. Today, on Christmas, those odds sit at +12000. That’s a tenfold collapse in less than four months. The Lions play the Vikings this afternoon in a game they must win to … Read more
NFL Christmas Day betting offers a historic oddity: the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos. That’s the largest home underdog margin for the franchise since October 1977, when they lost to the Raiders 37-28 en route to a 2-12 season. For a team that made the last three Super Bowls … Read more
Jacksonville entered Week 16 with the longest active cover streak in the NFL at 5-0 ATS. They had won five straight games outright, outscoring opponents 171-72 during that stretch. Trevor Lawrence was playing the best football of his career with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last four games. The Jaguars were still 3.5-point … Read more
The Chiefs dynasty betting lesson was written in Week 16. Kansas City entered the game against Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites despite being eliminated from the playoffs, missing Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, and having lost five of their last six games. The Titans won 26-9. It wasn’t close. How Reputation Inflated the Line … Read more
NFL Week 16 Underdog Results: Steelers, Titans, Panthers Cash NFL Week 16 underdog betting delivered three notable winners on Sunday, headlined by the Steelers’ outright upset of the Lions in Detroit. Contrarian bettors who backed underdogs against public-heavy favorites found value across the board. Here’s a breakdown of the underdog results that mattered most. Steelers … Read more
Bears Packers Line Movement: When the Line Flips, Pay Attention The Bears Packers line movement in Week 16 told a story before a single snap was played. Chicago’s 22-16 overtime victory on Saturday night delivered more than just a crucial NFC North win. It delivered a lesson in reading line movement that contrarian bettors should … Read more
The Market Has Overreacted to Mahomes’ Torn ACL Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending ACL tear on December 14 sent shockwaves through the NFL world. But savvy bettors should be asking a different question: has the market overcorrected? The Chiefs opened as 10.5-point favorites against the Titans before Mahomes went down. That line has plummeted to Chiefs -3, … Read more
The Greatest Comeback in Seahawks History Paid Underdog Bettors The Seattle Seahawks pulled off what may be the greatest comeback in franchise history on Thursday Night Football, rallying from a 30-14 fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Los Angeles Rams 38-37 in overtime. For contrarian bettors who backed Seattle as +1.5 home underdogs, the walk-off two-point … Read more