Historical betting trends and contrarian angles for upcoming sports seasons, tournaments, and major events. Data-driven analysis without specific picks.
An Unprecedented Wild Card Weekend Setup Wild Card Weekend kicks off today with something the NFL playoffs have never seen: four road favorites. The Rams, Packers, Bills, and Texans are all favored to win on the road. For the first time in league history, a No. 2 seed is an underdog to a No. 7 … Read more
Six Games, Six Opportunities Wild Card weekend opens tomorrow with six games spread across three days. The public has already placed their bets. The lines have moved. And somewhere in this weekend’s slate, value exists for those willing to look past the obvious narratives. We’ve spent this week examining historical playoff underdog performance, why public … Read more
The Rarest Playoff Spot Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are unicorns. The seeding structure ensures division winners host wild card teams, and those division winners are typically favored. You might see two or three home underdogs across an entire postseason. Some years, none at all. But when they appear, home playoff underdogs have been … Read more
The January Betting Surge Something changes in the betting market every January. Millions of casual bettors who ignored NFL spreads all season suddenly want action on the playoffs. They download apps, make deposits, and start placing bets. Most of them back favorites. This isn’t speculation. Sportsbooks track ticket counts and handle percentages. During the regular … Read more
The Numbers Don’t Lie Since 2017, playoff underdogs have covered the spread in approximately 61% of all postseason games. That’s not a typo. While the public floods sportsbooks with action on favorites every January, the dogs keep cashing tickets. The Wild Card round is where this trend shines brightest. Over the past eight postseasons, underdogs … Read more
The Week 18 Tank Bowl Paradox The Chiefs and Raiders meet Sunday in what might be the strangest game of the 2025 NFL season. Kansas City is favored by 6 points on the road against a team that needs to lose. That’s not hyperbole. The Raiders (2-14) clinch the #1 overall pick in the 2026 … Read more
NFL Christmas Day betting offers a historic oddity: the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos. That’s the largest home underdog margin for the franchise since October 1977, when they lost to the Raiders 37-28 en route to a 2-12 season. For a team that made the last three Super Bowls … Read more
Bears Packers Line Movement: When the Line Flips, Pay Attention The Bears Packers line movement in Week 16 told a story before a single snap was played. Chicago’s 22-16 overtime victory on Saturday night delivered more than just a crucial NFC North win. It delivered a lesson in reading line movement that contrarian bettors should … Read more