The Public Has Spoken
Tomorrow’s Conference Championship games have drawn clear battle lines in the betting market. In the AFC, the New England Patriots are road favorites of 5.5 points at Denver. In the NFC, 72% of bets placed at BetMGM have backed the Seattle Seahawks to cover against the Los Angeles Rams.
Both favorites earned their status. The Seahawks are riding an eight-game winning streak and demolished the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round. The Patriots defense forced five turnovers against the Texans while Drake Maye continues his case for MVP consideration. On paper, the public side makes sense.
But contrarian bettors know to look deeper. And in both games, the underdogs carry angles worth examining.
AFC: A 6.5-Point Overreaction
Before Bo Nix fractured his ankle in overtime of the Broncos’ wild 33-30 win over Buffalo, look-ahead lines had Denver as 1.5-point home favorites against New England. That number has swung 6.5 to 7 points since the injury, with the Patriots now laying 5.5 to 6 points depending on the book.
The market is pricing the difference between Nix and backup Jarrett Stidham at roughly 6.5 points. Multiple oddsmakers surveyed before the playoffs estimated the Nix-to-Stidham downgrade at 3.5 to 4 points. The current line suggests an overreaction to the injury news.
Yes, Stidham hasn’t thrown a regular season pass since 2023. Yes, his career record as a starter sits at 1-3. But he’s stepping into a system run by Sean Payton behind a Broncos defense that forced five turnovers against Josh Allen’s Bills just last week. Denver led the NFL in defensive efficiency for much of the season, and that unit doesn’t change with the quarterback.
The Patriots earned their favorite status, but laying nearly a touchdown on the road at Mile High against a team that went 14-3 this season is a big ask. The public sees the backup quarterback. Contrarian bettors see a line that may have moved too far.
NFC: The Public Loves Seattle
The Seahawks have captured 72% of spread bets heading into Sunday’s NFC Championship against the Rams. Seattle earned that support with dominant play over the past two months, allowing just 44 points to opponents other than the Rams over their last seven games while forcing 15 turnovers.
Here’s the complication: the Rams have owned this series against the spread. Los Angeles holds a 12-4 ATS record in the last 16 matchups against Seattle dating back to 2018. In games played at Seattle during that stretch, the Rams are 6-1 against the number.
This season’s two meetings fit the pattern. The Rams won 21-19 in Week 11 as 3-point favorites but failed to cover. The Seahawks won 38-37 in overtime in Week 16 as 1.5-point favorites, also failing to cover. In both games, the underdog stayed within the number. The combined margin was just three points across two games.
Matthew Stafford has struggled in these playoffs, completing barely 50% of his passes over the first two rounds. But his receivers, particularly Puka Nacua, have consistently produced against this secondary. Nacua caught 19 passes for 300 yards with two touchdowns across the two regular season meetings.
The Seahawks look like the better team right now. But the betting market doesn’t ask which team wins. It asks whether Seattle wins by more than 2.5. History says that’s not a certainty against these Rams.
What the Public Doesn’t Price
Playoff betting follows predictable patterns. The public backs favorites, especially when recent performance supports the narrative. Seattle blowing out San Francisco confirms what casual bettors already believed. Drake Maye continuing his breakout season reinforces the Patriots’ status as a team on the rise.
But contrarian value often hides in the narratives that cut against public perception. In Denver, that’s a backup quarterback stepping into a system built around defensive dominance and a running game. In Seattle, that’s a rivalry where the favorite has consistently failed to cover, even when winning outright.
The fade-the-public approach doesn’t guarantee profits. Seattle could steamroll the Rams by 20 points. The Patriots could expose Stidham’s rust and cover easily. Variance exists in every game.
But when the public loads up on favorites this heavily, contrarians start paying attention. Tomorrow’s underdogs may not win, but they don’t need to. They just need to stay close. And both have the pieces to do exactly that.