Saturday Belonged to the Favorites
The public loaded up on road underdogs. The favorites responded with authority. Saturday’s divisional round saw both home teams cover their spreads decisively, continuing a pattern that contrarian bettors should study heading into Sunday.
Denver’s overtime thriller against Buffalo ended 33-30, covering the Broncos’ slim 1.5-point spread. Seattle’s demolition of San Francisco wasn’t nearly as close. The Seahawks buried the 49ers 41-6, covering a 7-point spread by 28 points.
The Bills-Broncos Thriller: Five Turnovers Doom Buffalo
Josh Allen committed four turnovers in what may haunt him for years. Two interceptions. Two lost fumbles. The reigning MVP watched his season end in Denver for the second consecutive year, this time in far more painful fashion than last January’s 31-7 blowout.
Allen’s numbers looked solid on the surface: 25 of 39 for 283 yards with three touchdowns. But the turnovers swung the game. His fumble with 16 seconds left in the first half handed Denver a chip-shot field goal. Another strip-sack to open the third quarter led to three more points. The Broncos converted nine points off Allen’s mistakes.
The final interception came in overtime. Allen threw deep to Brandin Cooks, and what appeared to be a completion turned into a takeaway when Ja’Quan McMillian wrestled the ball away as both players hit the ground. Two pass interference penalties later, Wil Lutz drilled the game-winning field goal to send Denver to its first AFC Championship since the team won Super Bowl 50.
The victory came at a steep cost. Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle on the game-winning drive and will miss the rest of the playoffs. Backup Jarrett Stidham will start next week’s conference championship game.
Seattle’s Statement: 41-6 Over San Francisco
The Seahawks made a statement before many fans had settled into their seats. Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, setting the tone for a complete dismantling of the 49ers.
By the end of the first quarter, Seattle led 17-0. By halftime, 24-6. By the third quarter horn, 34-6. The Seahawks held San Francisco without a touchdown for the second consecutive meeting, following their 13-3 Week 18 victory that clinched the NFC West.
Kenneth Walker III rushed for 116 yards and three touchdowns. Seattle’s defense forced three turnovers, including an interception by Ernest Jones IV. Brock Purdy completed just 15 of 27 passes for 140 yards with an interception and a lost fumble against what the Seahawks call their “Dark Side” defense.
The 35-point margin marked the largest playoff win in Seahawks history, matching their Super Bowl XLVIII destruction of Denver. For San Francisco, it was the second-most lopsided playoff loss in franchise history, behind only a 49-3 defeat to the New York Giants in 1986.
What the Betting Market Got Wrong
Heading into Saturday, 68% of bets against the spread backed the 49ers as 7-point underdogs, according to Sports Betting Dime. The public saw a team that had just upset Philadelphia on the road and figured San Francisco’s momentum would carry forward.
The market didn’t properly account for Seattle’s defensive dominance. The Seahawks led the NFL in scoring defense during the regular season, allowing just 17.2 points per game. The 49ers were missing George Kittle (torn Achilles), Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa. And San Francisco was playing on a short week after their Sunday Wild Card game in Philadelphia, facing a rested Seattle team coming off a bye.
In the early game, the Bills opened as 1.5-point road favorites before the line flipped to Denver -1.5 by kickoff. Even after the flip, many bettors saw value on Buffalo given Josh Allen’s MVP season and the Bills’ 31-7 demolition of Denver in last year’s playoffs.
What they missed: Denver’s defense led the league in sacks for the second straight season. Allen had struggled against pressure all year. And the Broncos were 9-0 in games decided by one score.
Saturday ATS Summary
Favorites went 2-0 against the spread on Saturday. Both covered comfortably. Denver won outright as a 1.5-point favorite. Seattle covered a touchdown spread by four additional touchdowns.
For contrarian bettors, the lesson is familiar: when the public piles onto underdogs coming off impressive wins, the value often shifts to the other side. San Francisco’s Wild Card upset of Philadelphia inflated confidence in the 49ers. Buffalo’s recent dominance over Denver made the Bills seem like the safe play.
Both assumptions proved costly. The favorites were favorites for a reason, and Saturday reminded us that public sentiment doesn’t always identify where the real value lies.
Looking Ahead to Sunday
Two more divisional games await. The Texans visit New England at 3:00 PM ET, with the Patriots favored by 3 points. The Rams travel to Chicago at 6:30 PM ET, laying 3.5 points as road favorites.
Denver will host either New England or Houston in the AFC Championship. Seattle will face either Los Angeles or Chicago in the NFC title game. Both conference championships will be played at the top seeds’ home stadiums, setting up a scenario where the Broncos may need backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham to deliver a championship.