Kickoff Approaches with Public Backing Road Underdogs
As the divisional round kicks off Saturday afternoon, an unusual betting pattern has emerged. Public money is flooding toward road underdogs in three of four games this weekend, including a massive lean on the San Francisco 49ers as they head to Seattle.
This creates an interesting dynamic for contrarian bettors. The typical fade the public approach usually means backing underdogs against heavily bet favorites. But this weekend, fading the public might mean siding with home teams.
Saturday’s Games: Where the Money Is Going
The first game features a genuinely rare situation. The Denver Broncos, despite earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage, opened as 1.5-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills. According to early betting data from Sports Betting Dime, the Broncos are one of the road teams drawing significant public interest, though the money has been relatively balanced on this spread.
The evening matchup tells a different story. San Francisco is drawing approximately 68 percent of the spread money as 7-point underdogs at Seattle, according to Sports Betting Dime. DraftKings reports even higher numbers, with 74 percent of spread bets on the 49ers. This is the public’s favorite bet of the entire divisional round.
Why the Public Loves Road Underdogs This Weekend
Three factors seem to be driving this unusual pattern. First, Wild Card underdogs went 4-2 against the spread last weekend, including four games decided by four points or fewer – the most in any playoff round ever. Bettors may be chasing that trend.
Second, the 49ers are a familiar name with a strong road record this season. San Francisco went 8-2 against the spread on the road during the regular season, and they just knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles in Philadelphia. Even without tight end George Kittle, who suffered a torn Achilles in that Wild Card win, the public clearly believes this team travels well.
Third, Josh Allen’s road playoff struggles are well-documented. Buffalo’s quarterback is 0-4 in road playoff games, and that narrative may be pushing money toward Denver even though the Broncos are the home team in that matchup.
Historical Context: Playoff Home Teams Have an Edge
The public’s enthusiasm for road underdogs this weekend runs counter to historical patterns. Playoff home teams, particularly those with first-round byes, tend to perform well. Teams with home-field advantage have covered the spread at a higher rate in divisional round games over the past decade, though the margin varies by sample and criteria.
The psychology of underdog betting typically works in the other direction. Casual bettors usually flood to favorites, creating value on underdogs. When the pattern reverses and the public backs underdogs heavily, the contrarian calculus shifts.
The Contrarian Angle
For bettors who follow public money, this weekend presents an unusual question: Does fading the public mean backing Seattle at home against an opponent missing a key playmaker? Does it mean trusting Denver’s elite defense in Mile High against a banged-up Buffalo offense?
The Seahawks have won seven straight games entering this matchup. They beat San Francisco 13-3 in Week 18 to clinch the NFC’s top seed. Seattle’s defense held the 49ers offense scoreless in the final two quarters of that game.
Denver’s defense allowed just 18.3 points per game during the regular season, ranking among the league’s best. The Broncos went 13-1 over their final 14 games after starting 1-2.
What This Means for Contrarian Bettors
When public money flows one direction, contrarian bettors typically look the other way. The unusual wrinkle this weekend is that the public money is flowing toward underdogs rather than favorites.
This doesn’t guarantee the home favorites will cover. San Francisco has been one of the most resilient teams in football, and their road record supports the public’s confidence. Buffalo’s Josh Allen remains one of the NFL’s most dangerous players regardless of venue.
But the situation is worth noting. When 68-74 percent of spread money lands on a 7-point road underdog, the sportsbooks are effectively betting the other side. The market may be telling us something about where the sharper money is landing.
Divisional Saturday kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET with Bills-Broncos, followed by 49ers-Seahawks at 8 p.m. ET. By Sunday morning, we’ll know whether the public’s road underdog enthusiasm paid off or whether the home teams reasserted playoff home-field advantage.