Favorites Dominated, But One Home Underdog Covered
Sunday’s Divisional Round games completed what became a strong weekend for favorites. The Patriots handled the Texans 28-16 as 3.5-point chalk, while the Rams escaped Chicago with a 20-17 overtime victory. Favorites went 3-1 against the spread across the four-game weekend, a sharp reversal from Wild Card Weekend when underdogs went 4-2 ATS.
The lone underdog cover came from the Bears, who lost but covered as 4.5-point home underdogs. For contrarian bettors, the results offered a lesson in market timing: the Wild Card value that delivered multiple underdog covers dried up when the field narrowed.
Patriots 28, Texans 16: Houston’s Divisional Curse Continues
The Texans entered Gillette Stadium riding a 10-game winning streak and boasting the league’s top-ranked defense. They left with their franchise-worst playoff record intact: 0-7 in the divisional round. Houston remains the only NFL franchise that has never reached a conference championship game.
New England’s defense forced five turnovers, including Marcus Jones’ 26-yard pick-six in the second quarter that gave the Patriots a 14-10 lead. C.J. Stroud, who struggled in the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh, threw another interception and couldn’t find consistency against a Patriots defense that sacked him multiple times.
Drake Maye wasn’t flawless, losing a fumble and throwing an interception. But his 32-yard touchdown strike to Kayshon Boutte in the fourth quarter iced the game. The Patriots covered easily, winning by 12 points against a 3.5-point spread.
The public had mixed opinions on this game, with some backing Houston’s hot streak. The result reinforced a familiar pattern: playoff favorites at home with strong quarterback play tend to deliver, especially against teams with historical postseason struggles.
Rams 20, Bears 17 (OT): The Underdog Cover That Still Lost
Chicago entered as a 4.5-point home underdog against the Rams, a spread that seemed generous given the Bears’ miracle Wild Card comeback against Green Bay. What followed was a defensive slugfest in frigid conditions at Soldier Field.
The game appeared over when the Rams took a 17-10 lead with under two minutes remaining. Then Caleb Williams did what he’s done repeatedly this season: manufactured a miraculous play. Facing fourth-and-four with 18 seconds left, Williams threw a fadeaway touchdown pass to Cole Kmet while being driven well behind the line of scrimmage. The extra point tied it at 17.
In overtime, the Bears drove to the Rams’ 48-yard line before Williams’ third interception of the game ended their season. Kam Curl’s diving pick set up Harrison Mevis for a 42-yard game-winning field goal.
For ATS purposes, the Bears covered. They lost by three points while getting 4.5. But the result felt hollow for anyone backing Chicago outright. Williams’ three interceptions were more than he threw in any game during the regular season.
Divisional Round ATS Summary
The four-game weekend produced a clear pattern:
Saturday:
Broncos 33, Bills 30 (OT) – Denver -1.5: COVERED
Seahawks 41, 49ers 6 – Seattle -7: COVERED
Sunday:
Patriots 28, Texans 16 – New England -3.5: COVERED
Rams 20, Bears 17 (OT) – LA -4.5: DID NOT COVER
Weekend totals:
Favorites: 3-1 ATS
Underdogs: 1-3 ATS
Home teams: 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS
Road teams: 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS
Conference Championships Set
The final four is established. In the AFC, the Patriots will travel to Denver to face the Broncos. New England’s path runs through Mile High, where Jarrett Stidham will start after Bo Nix’s season-ending overtime injury on Saturday.
In the NFC, the Rams head to Seattle for the third meeting between these division rivals this season. They split the regular-season series, with the Rams winning 21-19 in Week 11 and the Seahawks taking the Week 16 meeting 38-37.
The contrarian question heading into next weekend: will the market overcorrect? After favorites dominated the divisional round, public money may pile onto the remaining chalk. History suggests that’s precisely when underdog value re-emerges.
The Takeaway
Divisional Round favorites went 3-1 ATS after Wild Card underdogs went 4-2 ATS. The pendulum swings. Houston’s franchise futility in the divisional round continued with their seventh consecutive loss at this stage. The Bears covered but still went home, a reminder that ATS success and winning the game are different goals.
Conference championship lines will be released soon. The data from this weekend doesn’t guarantee anything about next weekend. But it does confirm what long-term trends already show: playoff betting is about finding specific edges in specific matchups, not riding blanket strategies from round to round.