Slovakia 4, Finland 1: The Tournament’s First Upset
The men’s hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics opened Wednesday in Milan with a result that should look familiar to anyone who follows contrarian betting philosophy. Slovakia, listed at +15000 to win gold on FanDuel before the tournament, dismantled defending Olympic champion Finland 4-1 in the Group B opener.
Finland entered as -475 moneyline favorites. Multiple betting analysts recommended the Finns on the puck line at -2.5. One pre-game breakdown dismissed Slovakia’s roster, noting “the talent gap between these two rosters is massive.” The gap apparently ran the wrong direction.
Montreal Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky scored twice and added an assist, picking up exactly where he left off four years ago. Slafkovsky was named MVP of the 2022 Beijing Olympics as a teenager. He scored Slovakia’s first two goals in that tournament too, though his team lost. “This is way better — a way better feeling to win,” Slafkovsky told reporters afterward.
39 Saves, 7 NHL Players, One Statement
The numbers tell the story of how lopsided this game looked on paper versus how it actually played out. Finland outshot Slovakia 40-25 overall and dominated possession 18-5 in shots during the first period alone. Samuel Hlavaj, a Minnesota Wild prospect playing in the AHL for Iowa, stopped 39 of 40 shots.
Slovakia carried just seven NHL players on its roster. Nearly every skater on Finland’s side plays in the NHL. Juuse Saros, Nashville’s starting goaltender, was expected to anchor Finland’s run at a medal. He allowed three goals on 24 shots before the empty-netter sealed it.
“We are kind of that team no one’s really expecting us to win much of the games,” alternate captain Martin Fehervary said. Sound familiar? That’s the profile of every underdog that catches the public sleeping.
Italy Hung Around Longer Than Anyone Expected
The second game of the day was supposed to be a blowout. Sweden, with gold medal odds of +550 and a roster stacked entirely with NHL players, faced host Italy — the longest shot in the tournament at +100000 (that’s 1000-to-1). Italy doesn’t have a single NHL player on its roster. They hadn’t fielded an Olympic hockey team since 2006.
Italy scored first. Luca Frigo capitalized on a turnover by Swedish goaltender Filip Gustavsson four minutes in, and for a brief stretch, the biggest underdog in the tournament held the lead against one of the favorites. Sweden eventually pulled away to win 5-2, but the final score obscures how competitive this was through 40 minutes.
Italian goaltender Damian Clara, an Anaheim Ducks prospect drafted in the second round in 2023, stopped 46 of 49 shots before leaving with a leg cramp in the third period. Sweden fired 60 shots on goal total — the most ever by a team in an Olympic game featuring NHL players. Clara absorbed that barrage and kept Italy within a goal through two periods. “He played unbelievable,” Italy’s Dustin Gazley said.
Why Olympic Hockey Rewards Underdogs
International tournament hockey has always produced more upsets than the public expects. The format matters. Short round-robin groups with three games mean one hot goaltender can carry a team into the knockout round. From there, single-elimination hockey is closer to the NCAA tournament than to an NHL playoff series. One game. Anything happens.
Recent Olympic history proves the point. In 2018, without NHL players, Germany reached the gold medal game as a massive underdog and nearly won it. The Olympic Athletes from Russia took gold that year. In 2022, Finland won its first-ever Olympic hockey gold. Slovakia, led by a teenage Slafkovsky, beat Sweden 4-0 for the bronze medal.
Even with NHL players in the tournament, upsets happen. The Czech Republic won gold in 1998 behind Dominik Hasek despite Canada icing Wayne Gretzky, Patrick Roy, and a loaded roster. The U.S. hasn’t won gold since 1980’s Miracle on Ice. Canada went 50 years between hockey golds from 1952 to 2002. Tournament hockey doesn’t respect rankings the way a seven-game series does.
The Contrarian Angle Going Forward
The public will pile onto Canada (+105) and the United States (+190) for the gold medal. Those two nations dominated the public betting before a single puck dropped. Today’s results won’t change that. Casual bettors will dismiss Slovakia’s win as a one-off and assume the heavyweights will cruise.
But the structure of this tournament creates real underdog value. Twelve teams, short group stages, and single-elimination knockout rounds starting February 17. A goaltender like Hlavaj getting hot, the way he did Wednesday, can compress talent gaps in ways that a long NHL season never would. Slovakia proved that on Day 1. Italy came closer to proving it than anyone anticipated.
Thursday’s schedule brings more potential mismatch games: Switzerland vs. France in Group A, Czechia vs. Canada, and Latvia vs. the United States in Group C. The U.S. will be heavy favorites against Latvia, just as Finland was against Slovakia 24 hours earlier. The psychology of favorites is universal, whether it’s NFL point spreads or Olympic hockey moneylines. The public assumes the better team always wins. Tournament hockey keeps reminding them otherwise.