The January Betting Surge Something changes in the betting market every January. Millions of casual bettors who ignored NFL spreads all season suddenly want action on the playoffs. They download apps, make deposits, and start placing bets. Most of them back favorites. This isn’t speculation. Sportsbooks track ticket counts and handle percentages. During the regular … Read more
Home Favorite to Home Underdog Something unusual happened this week in the betting market. The San Francisco 49ers opened as 1.5-point favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks. By Tuesday, that line had flipped. The 49ers are now 1.5-point underdogs in their own building. The game is Saturday night. Winner takes the NFC West title … Read more
NFL Christmas Day betting offers a historic oddity: the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-point home underdogs against the Denver Broncos. That’s the largest home underdog margin for the franchise since October 1977, when they lost to the Raiders 37-28 en route to a 2-12 season. For a team that made the last three Super Bowls … Read more
The Chiefs dynasty betting lesson was written in Week 16. Kansas City entered the game against Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites despite being eliminated from the playoffs, missing Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, and having lost five of their last six games. The Titans won 26-9. It wasn’t close. How Reputation Inflated the Line … Read more
Bears Packers Line Movement: When the Line Flips, Pay Attention The Bears Packers line movement in Week 16 told a story before a single snap was played. Chicago’s 22-16 overtime victory on Saturday night delivered more than just a crucial NFC North win. It delivered a lesson in reading line movement that contrarian bettors should … Read more