An Unprecedented Wild Card Weekend Setup Wild Card Weekend kicks off today with something the NFL playoffs have never seen: four road favorites. The Rams, Packers, Bills, and Texans are all favored to win on the road. For the first time in league history, a No. 2 seed is an underdog to a No. 7 … Read more
Six Games, Six Opportunities Wild Card weekend opens tomorrow with six games spread across three days. The public has already placed their bets. The lines have moved. And somewhere in this weekend’s slate, value exists for those willing to look past the obvious narratives. We’ve spent this week examining historical playoff underdog performance, why public … Read more
The Rarest Playoff Spot Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are unicorns. The seeding structure ensures division winners host wild card teams, and those division winners are typically favored. You might see two or three home underdogs across an entire postseason. Some years, none at all. But when they appear, home playoff underdogs have been … Read more
The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams. The opening line? Panthers … Read more
Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each. The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily … Read more
Three Divisions on the Line Week 18 brings something rare: three games where the winner takes the division and the loser goes home. The NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. For contrarian bettors, the setup offers interesting angles that cut against public perception. The betting market has spoken … Read more
The Buccaneers Are Still Favored Tampa Bay has failed to cover a spread in eight consecutive games. They started the season 6-2. They’re now 7-9. Their collapse has been one of the most thorough in recent NFL history. And on Saturday, when they host the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title, the Buccaneers are … Read more
NFL Week 16 Underdog Results: Steelers, Titans, Panthers Cash NFL Week 16 underdog betting delivered three notable winners on Sunday, headlined by the Steelers’ outright upset of the Lions in Detroit. Contrarian bettors who backed underdogs against public-heavy favorites found value across the board. Here’s a breakdown of the underdog results that mattered most. Steelers … Read more
NFL Week 13 was a bloodbath for favorites. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread, with seven winning outright. Moreover, the carnage started on Thanksgiving and didn’t stop until Monday night. For bettors who follow fade the public principles, this was the kind of week that makes the strategy worth the grind. Public money piled onto … Read more