Six Games, Six Opportunities Wild Card weekend opens tomorrow with six games spread across three days. The public has already placed their bets. The lines have moved. And somewhere in this weekend’s slate, value exists for those willing to look past the obvious narratives. We’ve spent this week examining historical playoff underdog performance, why public … Read more
The Jaguars Are Home Underdogs Despite an 8-Game Winning Streak The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t lost since early November. They’ve won eight straight games. They’ve covered the spread in all eight of those games. They finished the regular season 12-4-1 against the spread, the best mark in franchise history. And they’re underdogs at home in the … Read more
The Panthers Are Making History for the Wrong Reasons Carolina finished 8-9. They lost their season finale to Tampa Bay. Their point differential sits at -69, the fourth-worst by any playoff team in NFL history. And yet the Panthers are hosting a playoff game on Saturday against the Los Angeles Rams. The opening line? Panthers … Read more
The Numbers Don’t Lie Since 2017, playoff underdogs have covered the spread in approximately 61% of all postseason games. That’s not a typo. While the public floods sportsbooks with action on favorites every January, the dogs keep cashing tickets. The Wild Card round is where this trend shines brightest. Over the past eight postseasons, underdogs … Read more
The Tomlin Special Delivers Again Week 18 Sunday ended exactly how contrarian bettors dream: with a missed field goal, a home underdog winning outright, and Mike Tomlin adding another line to his legendary resume. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 to claim the AFC North title, covering as 3.5-point underdogs and extending one … Read more
Saturday’s Division Games Deliver Mixed Results Week 18 opened with two division title games on Saturday. One underdog covered despite losing. The other got dominated. The contrarian lessons were different for each. The Seahawks dismantled the 49ers 13-3 at Levi’s Stadium, clinching the NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed. Seattle covered easily … Read more
Three Divisions on the Line Week 18 brings something rare: three games where the winner takes the division and the loser goes home. The NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North will all be decided this weekend. For contrarian bettors, the setup offers interesting angles that cut against public perception. The betting market has spoken … Read more
NFL Week 13 was a bloodbath for favorites. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread, with seven winning outright. Moreover, the carnage started on Thanksgiving and didn’t stop until Monday night. For bettors who follow fade the public principles, this was the kind of week that makes the strategy worth the grind. Public money piled onto … Read more