NFL Week 14 Upset Recap

NFL Week 14 Upset Recap

NFL Week 14 delivered seven underdog wins, and two of them carried playoff implications that will echo for weeks. The Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-10 as +185 moneyline underdogs, and the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Baltimore Ravens 27-22 as +225 dogs. Both results flipped division races and altered the AFC landscape … Read more

Bills Chasing Patriots in AFC East: Why Public Perception Creates Contrarian Value

Bills betting value infographic showing AFC East standings and ATS record

Bills AFC East betting value has emerged as the Patriots surge to first place. The Buffalo Bills sit at 10-4, chasing New England in one of the most competitive division races in years. Josh Allen just won MVP in February and signed a $330 million extension in March. The public loves backing the reigning league … Read more

The Chiefs’ Collapse: A Contrarian Case Study

chiefs-collapse-case-study

Eight months ago, the Kansas City Chiefs were favorites to complete an unprecedented three-peat. They entered Super Bowl LIX at -1.5 against the Eagles, seeking to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Instead, Philadelphia dominated them 40-22 in one of the most lopsided championship games ever played. Now … Read more

NFL Week 13: Seven Underdogs Win Outright as Favorites Get Crushed

week-13-underdogs-score

NFL Week 13 was a bloodbath for favorites. Underdogs went 10-5 against the spread, with seven winning outright. Moreover, the carnage started on Thanksgiving and didn’t stop until Monday night. For bettors who follow fade the public principles, this was the kind of week that makes the strategy worth the grind. Public money piled onto … Read more

Texans Upset Chiefs 20-10: Contrarians Cash In on Sunday Night

Texans upset the Chiefs 20-10 on Sunday Night Football

The Texans upset the Chiefs 20-10 on Sunday Night Football, and bettors who backed Houston cashed in. The Texans closed as 3.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium against the three-time defending AFC champions. They won outright, paying around +160 on the moneyline. For anyone following fade the public principles, this result fit a familiar pattern. The … Read more