The Jaguars Were on a Five-Game Cover Streak. The Market Still Didn’t Believe.

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Jacksonville entered Week 16 with the longest active cover streak in the NFL at 5-0 ATS. They had won five straight games outright, outscoring opponents 171-72 during that stretch. Trevor Lawrence was playing the best football of his career with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last four games. The Jaguars were still 3.5-point … Read more

NFL Week 16 Underdog Results: Steelers, Titans, Panthers Cash

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NFL Week 16 Underdog Results: Steelers, Titans, Panthers Cash NFL Week 16 underdog betting delivered three notable winners on Sunday, headlined by the Steelers’ outright upset of the Lions in Detroit. Contrarian bettors who backed underdogs against public-heavy favorites found value across the board. Here’s a breakdown of the underdog results that mattered most. Steelers … Read more

Week 16 Contrarian Betting Preview: Finding Value in Public Overreaction

Week 16 contrarian betting preview showing home underdog ATS record and Tomlin stats

Week 16 contrarian betting opportunities emerge as the playoff picture takes shape. Home underdogs are 33-48-4 ATS (41%) in 2024, a losing record that scares most bettors away. But context matters. Some home dogs offer genuine value when public perception inflates the favorite’s line. This week features several spots where fading the public could pay … Read more

NFL Week 15 Upset Recap: Bills and Bucs Reward Contrarian Bettors

Week 15 upset recap infographic showing Bills 48-42 and Bucs 40-17 underdog wins

Week 15 upset recap: two massive underdogs cashed tickets for contrarian bettors. The Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 48-42 as +2.5 road underdogs, snapping Detroit’s 11-game winning streak. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers demolished the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 as +3 road dogs. When public money floods toward favorites, these results remind us why fading … Read more

NFL Week 14 Upset Recap

NFL Week 14 Upset Recap

NFL Week 14 delivered seven underdog wins, and two of them carried playoff implications that will echo for weeks. The Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs 20-10 as +185 moneyline underdogs, and the Pittsburgh Steelers knocked off the Baltimore Ravens 27-22 as +225 dogs. Both results flipped division races and altered the AFC landscape … Read more

Bills Chasing Patriots in AFC East: Why Public Perception Creates Contrarian Value

Bills betting value infographic showing AFC East standings and ATS record

Bills AFC East betting value has emerged as the Patriots surge to first place. The Buffalo Bills sit at 10-4, chasing New England in one of the most competitive division races in years. Josh Allen just won MVP in February and signed a $330 million extension in March. The public loves backing the reigning league … Read more