The January Betting Surge Something changes in the betting market every January. Millions of casual bettors who ignored NFL spreads all season suddenly want action on the playoffs. They download apps, make deposits, and start placing bets. Most of them back favorites. This isn’t speculation. Sportsbooks track ticket counts and handle percentages. During the regular … Read more
The Buccaneers Are Still Favored Tampa Bay has failed to cover a spread in eight consecutive games. They started the season 6-2. They’re now 7-9. Their collapse has been one of the most thorough in recent NFL history. And on Saturday, when they host the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South title, the Buccaneers are … Read more
Seven-Point Underdogs Win Outright The Atlanta Falcons entered Monday Night Football with nothing to play for. Eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago. A 6-9 record. Playing a Rams team that had already clinched a postseason berth and was jockeying for seeding. The betting public saw a mismatch. By game time, over 80% of spread bets … Read more
Five Underdogs, Five Outright Winners Week 17 underdogs didn’t just cover. They dominated. From Saturday through Sunday, five underdogs won outright, and the margins weren’t close. Here’s what happened: Texans +1.5 at Chargers: Won 20-16. Houston led 14-0 in the first quarter and never trailed. C.J. Stroud threw two touchdown passes in the opening frame … Read more
Tampa Bay started the season 6-2. They were getting serious NFC contender buzz. Baker Mayfield looked like a late-career revelation. The offense was rolling. The four-time NFC South champions appeared ready for another division title run. That was two months ago. Since then, the Buccaneers have gone 1-6. More striking: they’re 0-7 against the spread … Read more
The Chiefs dynasty betting lesson was written in Week 16. Kansas City entered the game against Tennessee as 3.5-point road favorites despite being eliminated from the playoffs, missing Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, and having lost five of their last six games. The Titans won 26-9. It wasn’t close. How Reputation Inflated the Line … Read more
Week 16 contrarian betting opportunities emerge as the playoff picture takes shape. Home underdogs are 33-48-4 ATS (41%) in 2024, a losing record that scares most bettors away. But context matters. Some home dogs offer genuine value when public perception inflates the favorite’s line. This week features several spots where fading the public could pay … Read more
Week 15 upset recap: two massive underdogs cashed tickets for contrarian bettors. The Buffalo Bills defeated the Detroit Lions 48-42 as +2.5 road underdogs, snapping Detroit’s 11-game winning streak. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers demolished the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 as +3 road dogs. When public money floods toward favorites, these results remind us why fading … Read more
The Dynasty Ends at Arrowhead The Chargers completed their first season sweep of the Chiefs since 2013 on Sunday, winning 16-13 at Arrowhead Stadium as 4.5-point underdogs. The loss officially eliminated Kansas City from playoff contention for the first time since 2014. And in the final minutes, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, ending his season … Read more
The Kansas City Chiefs entered the 2025 season with -450 odds to make the playoffs. They’re now sitting at +390 after dropping to 6-7, with their playoff probability hovering around 9-15% depending on which model you trust. The dynasty that won three of the last five Super Bowls might not even reach the postseason. For … Read more